Study finds climate changes faster than species can adapt

Monday, December 5, 2011

The ranges of species will have to change dramatically as a result of climate change between now and 2100 because the climate will change more than 100 times faster than the rate at which species can adapt, according to a newly published study by Indiana University researchers.

The study, which focuses on North American rattlesnakes, finds that the rate of future change in suitable habitat will be two to three orders of magnitude greater than the average change over the past 300 millennia, a time that included three major glacial cycles and significant variation in climate and temperature.

"We find that, over the next 90 years, at best these species' ranges will change more than 100 times faster than they have during the past 320,000 years," said Michelle Lawing, lead author of the paper and a doctoral candidate in geological sciences and biology at IU Bloomington. "This rate of change is unlike anything these species have experienced, probably since their formation."

The study, "Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change," was published by the online science journal PLoS One. Co-author is P. David Polly, associate professor in the Department of Geological Sciences in the IU Bloomington College of Arts and Sciences.

The researchers make use of the fact that species have been responding to climate change throughout their history and their past responses can inform what to expect in the future. They synthesize information from climate cycle models, indicators of climate from the geological record, evolution of rattlesnake species and other data to develop what they call "paleophylogeographic models" for rattlesnake ranges. This enables them to map the expansion and contraction at 4,000-year intervals of the ranges of 11 North American species of the rattlesnake genus Crotalus.

Projecting the models into the future, the researchers calculate the expected changes in range at the lower and upper extremes of warming predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ? between 1.1 degree and 6.4 degrees Celsius. They calculate that rattlesnake ranges have moved an average of only 2.3 meters a year over the past 320,000 years and that their tolerances to climate have evolved about 100 to 1,000 times slower, indicating that range shifts are the only way that rattlesnakes have coped with climate change in the recent past. With projected climate change in the next 90 years, the ranges would be displaced by a remarkable 430 meters to 2,400 meters a year.

Increasing temperature does not necessarily mean expanded suitable habitats for rattlesnakes. The timber rattlesnake, for example, is now found throughout the Eastern United States. The study finds that, with a temperature increase of 1.1 degree Celsius over the next 90 years, its range would expand slightly into New York, New England and Texas. But with an increase of 6.4 degrees, its range would shrink to a small area on the Tennessee-North Carolina border. The giant Eastern diamondback rattlesnake would be displaced entirely from its current range in the Southeastern U.S. with a temperature increase of 6.4 degrees.

The findings suggest snakes wouldn't be able to move fast enough to keep up with the change in suitable habitat. The authors suggest the creation of habitat corridors and managed relocation may be needed to preserve some species.

Rattlesnakes are good indicators of climate change because they are ectotherms, which depend on the environment to regulate their body temperatures. But Lawing and Polly note that many organisms will be affected by climate change, and their study provides a model for examining what may happen with other species. Their future research could address the past and future effects of climate change on other types of snakes and on the biological communities of snakes.

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The article is available online from PLoS One. Time-lapse videos showing the change in the range of Crotalus species at 4,000-year intervals over the past 320,000 years can be viewed at www.indiana.edu/~iunews/flash/videos/Video_S1.gif, www.indiana.edu/~iunews/flash/videos/Video_S2.gif and http://www.indiana.edu/~iunews/flash/videos/Video_S3.gif.

Indiana University: http://newsinfo.iu.edu

Thanks to Indiana University for this article.

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Source: http://www.labspaces.net/115714/Study_finds_climate_changes_faster_than_species_can_adapt

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Feds to allow use of Medicare data to rate doctors (AP)

WASHINGTON ? Picking a specialist for a delicate medical procedure like a heart bypass could get a lot easier in the not-too-distant future.

The government announced Monday that Medicare will finally allow its extensive claims database to be used by employers, insurance companies and consumer groups to produce report cards on local doctors and hospitals.

By analyzing masses of billing records, experts can glean such critical information as how often a doctor has performed a particular procedure and get a general sense of problems such as preventable complications.

Doctors will be individually identifiable through the Medicare files, but personal data on their patients will remain confidential. Compiled in an easily understood format and released to the public, medical report cards could become a powerful tool for promoting quality care.

"There is tremendous variation in how well doctors do, and most of us as patients don't know that. We make our choices blind," said David Lansky, president of the Pacific Business Group on Health. "This is the beginning of a process to give us the information to make informed decisions." His nonprofit represents 50 large employers that provide coverage for more than 3 million people.

Medicare acting administrator Marilyn Tavenner called the new policy "a giant step forward in making our health care system more transparent and promoting increased competition, accountability, quality and lower costs."

Early efforts to rate physicians using limited private insurance data have thus far focused on primary care doctors, but Medicare's rich information could provide the numbers to start rating specialists as well, Lansky said. Consumers will see the first performance reports by late 2012, said a Medicare spokesman.

Medicare officials say they expect nonprofit research groups in California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Massachusetts and other states to jump at the chance to use the data. With 47 million beneficiaries and virtually every doctor and hospital in the country participating, Medicare's database is considered the mother lode of health care information.

Tapping it has largely been forbidden because of a decades-old court ruling that releasing the information would violate the privacy of doctors. Insurance companies tried to fill the gap using their own claims data, but their files are nowhere near as comprehensive as Medicare's

Following appeals from lawmakers of both parties on Capitol Hill, President Barack Obama's health care overhaul changed federal law to explicitly authorize release of the information. Medicare followed through in regulations issued Monday.

Consumer groups were still poring over the fine print, concerned about rules that could make it harder for them to gain access. But employer groups welcomed the new policy.

"There is pent-up demand for this data because everyone wants to be a more informed, intelligent consumer, especially as health care costs are still rising," said Maria Ghazal, policy director at the Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs of major companies providing coverage to some 35 million employees, retirees and family members.

Companies will use the data analyses in their annual updates to their insurance plans. But Ghazal said they also want to put report cards directly in the hands of their employees.

"We want to make it understandable and usable by our employees," said Ghazal.

Early ratings efforts using insurance company data have lacked sufficient statistical power to rank specialists. The numbers of cases of cancer and serious heart problems in the younger, working-age population simply weren't big enough. The Medicare data could change that, since older people are more prone to chronic illnesses.

"If you want to look at heart disease or cancer, suddenly you have more data to look at each doctor with," said Lansky. "It's the power of numbers."

Doctors groups that fought for years to prevent release of the Medicare data, have lately shifted to putting conditions on its use.

For example, Medicare's rule gives individual providers the right to see their information before it is publicly released, and 60 days to challenge it.

The American Medical Association had previously argued that such data could be misleading to untrained consumers. For example, a surgeon who has lots of patients who develop complications may actually be a top practitioner who takes cases that others less skilled would turn away.

Medicare says it will screen the analytical methods of groups that are requesting access to the data. The organizations will have to meet other qualifications, such as having access to claims data of their own. And they will have to pay for access to the Medicare files.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/health/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111205/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_medical_report_cards

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Senate backs military custody for terror suspects (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? The Senate voted on Thursday to broaden the armed forces' powers over suspected militants, requiring that foreigners allied with al Qaeda be held in military custody even if they are captured in the United States.

The White House has threatened to veto the provisions. Members of President Barack Obama's national security team argued that U.S. officials should keep the option of prosecuting suspected militants in civilian as well as military courts -- and deciding this case by case.

The Senate voted for the terror suspect provisions as part of a huge defense bill that was passed by a vote of 93-7. It authorized $662 billion for the armed forces and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in fiscal 2012.

That is $27 billion less than what Obama requested and $43 billion less than the amount Congress approved for the same purposes a year earlier, reflecting the new emphasis on budget-cutting to rein in the national debt.

The legislation also allows the government to keep terrorism suspects in military custody indefinitely, without trial. It must still be melded with a House of Representatives version, which contains similar provisions on detainees, before being sent to Obama for his approval or veto.

It was the latest battle in a long struggle between Obama, a Democrat, and some lawmakers over whether terror suspects should be prosecuted as "enemy combatants" before military commissions, or as criminal suspects in U.S. federal courts.

Republicans and some Democrats have urged that only military courts be used, and Congress repeatedly has voted to limit transfers of detainees from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to the United States.

IMPACT ON U.S. CITIZENS

American citizens are exempted from the mandatory military detention requirement. The legislation also has waivers allowing officials to place a prisoner in the U.S. criminal court system if it is in the interest of national security, but FBI chief Robert Mueller and others have argued that the waiver procedure is too awkward.

Amid concerns the provisions might impinge on the constitutional rights of U.S. citizens in military custody, the Senate passed an amendment saying nothing in the provisions could be construed to alter Americans' legal rights.

Some analysts said that fudged the issue.

"(It) doesn't clear up the confusion around who the provisions cover -- which is really a reminder of why military and law enforcement officials, as well as past interrogators, are against the provisions in the first place," said Heather Hurlburt, executive director of the non-profit National Security Network.

Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California, sought unsuccessfully on Thursday to limit the military custody requirement to suspects captured outside the United States. The Senate voted her proposal down, 55-45.

Feinstein, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, argued that ordinary criminal courts had produced lengthy sentences for convicted terror suspects such as convicted shoebomber Richard Reid, who received a life sentence in 2003 after he pleaded guilty to trying to blow up an aircraft.

But Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte warned al Qaeda might send others to attack the United States if it thought that suspects captured on U.S. soil would not go into military custody.

"In our country we need the authority in the first instance to hold those individuals in military custody," she said.

Otherwise, "we're laying out a welcome mat, to say, that if you make it to America, you won't be held in military custody," Ayotte said.

Jeh Johnson, Defense Department general counsel, said on Thursday the detainee provisions would actually hinder the pursuit of terrorism suspects.

"Al Qaeda is a more decentralized organization than it was 10 years ago and that the threat will continue to evolve in ways that we can't entirely anticipate ... we urge our friends in Congress to not take away our counterterrorism options," Johnson said at an American Bar Association conference.

(Additional reporting by Tabassum Zakaria; Editing by Missy Ryan and Paul Simao)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/terrorism/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111202/pl_nm/us_usa_detainees

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Course excellent, adjustment postponed: Mars Science Laboratory mission status report

ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2011) ? Excellent launch precision for NASA's Mars Science Laboratory mission has forestalled the need for an early trajectory correction maneuver, now not required for a month or more.

That first of six planned course adjustments during the 254-day journey from Earth to Mars had originally been scheduled for 15 days after the mission's Nov. 26 launch on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Now, the correction maneuver will not be performed until later in December or possibly January.

"This was among the most accurate interplanetary injections ever," said Louis D'Amario of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. He is the mission design and navigation manager for the Mars Science Laboratory.

Engineers deliberately planned the spacecraft's initial trajectory to miss Mars by about 35,000 miles (56,400 kilometers). This precaution protects Mars from Earth's microbes, because the Centaur upper stage of the launch vehicle, which is not thoroughly cleaned the way the spacecraft is, leaves Earth on the same trajectory as the spacecraft. The planned trajectory ensures that the Centaur will not hit Mars.

The launch put the spacecraft on an actual trajectory missing Mars by about 38,000 miles (61,200 kilometers). Planned trajectory correction maneuvers will put the spacecraft on course and on timing to land at Mars' Gale Crater on Aug. 6, 2012, Universal Time (evening of Aug. 5, Pacific Daylight Time).

The spacecraft experienced a computer reset on Tuesday apparently related to star-identifying software in the attitude control system. The reset put the spacecraft briefly into a precautionary safe mode. Engineers restored it to normal operational status for functions other than attitude control while planning resumption of star-guided attitude control.

Also on Tuesday, thrusters were used as planned to slow the spacecraft's rotation rate from 2.5 rotations per minute to 2.05 rotations per minute. Telecommunications are active at a downlink rate of 25 kilobits per second. Electrical output from the cruise stage solar array is 800 watts. Thrusters warmed by catalytic bed heaters were originally warmer than expected, but use of the heaters has been reduced to keep the thrusters at intended temperatures.

As of 9 a.m. PST (noon EST) on Friday, Dec. 2, the spacecraft will have traveled 10.8 million miles (17.3 million kilometers) of its 352-million-mile (567-million-kilometer) flight to Mars, and will be moving at 7,500 mph (12,000 kilometers per hour) relative to Earth and at 73,800 mph (118,700 kilometers per hour) relative to the sun.

The Mars Science Laboratory mission will use its car-size rover, Curiosity, to investigate whether the selected region on Mars has offered environmental conditions favorable for supporting microbial life and favorable for preserving clues about whether life existed.

JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Science Laboratory mission for the NASA Science Mission Directorate, Washington.

More information about Curiosity is online at: http://www.nasa.gov/msl and http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/ .

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Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111201220357.htm

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